Posted by
Eric Blankenburg on Wednesday, May 28, 2008 9:19:00 PM
There have been two political watershed years in the last four decades, where third party Presidential bids helped usher in fundamental changes to the power structure in Washington.
In 1968, the racial divide in the Democratic Party enabled third party candidate George Wallace to win five southern states. This helped put Nixon in the White House and started four decades of GOP domination of Presidential politics, as the once solidly Democratic South became solidly Republican four years later.
In 1992, George Bush’s general cluelessness about the economy helped Ross Perot mount a third party candidacy that won 19% of the popular vote. Perot ran on a platform of reining in the corrupt scoundrels in Washington, who were “spending our children’s inheritance”. In 1994, Newt Gingrich seized that message and led the GOP into control of the House of Representatives for the first time in four decades. The budget was balanced four years later.
Will 2008 be another watershed political year?
The economy is in much worse shape that it was in 1992. Gas prices are at $4 a gallon. Inflation is on the rise. The housing market has collapsed. Over 80% of the voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction. Bush has the lowest approval rating in history. The GOP has been booted from control of Congress and has now lost three special congressional elections in what were “safe” districts for them. A huge portion of the GOP base is very unhappy with McCain.
The Democratic Party may not be in great shape either. They are still deeply divided by race and an enormous number of white voters in the industrial Midwest don’t seem inclined to vote for Obama.
Voters have also turned against the Iraq war. McCain’s unconditional support for the war may make it difficult for him to attract the white Democratic voters who don’t like Obama.
The environment seems ripe for another political upheaval. Enthusiasm for Ron Paul’s insurgent campaign in the GOP went up after McCain clinched the GOP nomination. For example, Paul won 16% of the primary vote in Pennsylvania, which was his highest total yet. Pennsylvania is also one of those very large industrial states where white voters have not been kind to Obama. Clinton beat Obama there 55% to 45%.
The Libertarian Party has responded by nominating former GOP Congressman Bob Barr as their Presidential candidate. The interesting thing to note is that Bob Barr was first elected to Congress as part of Newt Gingrich’s reformist agenda in 1994, so he has some experience in leading great political change.
Can Bob Barr capitalize on the mood of the country and fashion a working coalition out of disgruntled Republicans and Democrats to shake up the show this year? The opportunity is definitely there. It’s now up to Barr to seize it.